Stefan West, a broker with Diversified Realty, and a blogger on our real estate companion blog, posted an interesting piece about the state of Menifee's real estate market...

Pricing is artificially low - Banks have changed from an incremental, "lower the price until it sells", to an immediate "price it cheap and get multiple offers" strategy. This is painful because it creates a false sense of the real value of properties on the market. How do I explain to a buyer that the incredible pool home at $350,000 already has 7 offers on it and is really going for around $400,000?

Banks have been able to hog up all the buyers by setting their home prices exceptionally low. That puts the rest of the home sellers in a really tough spot.

Read the rest of Stefan's article here...

http://homes.menifee247.com/2008/06/menifee-real-esate-is-not-buyers-market.html

Labels: Real-Estate

I received a call today from a stressed out renter who just received a Notice of Trustee Sale taped to the front of her door. She has been renting the house since February.

Upon further research we found that this renter had entered into a month-to-month contract with a woman who was not even the owner of the property!

These particular renters basically have about 2 weeks until the sale date, and then an agent will come knocking hopefully to negotiate a decent Cash for Keys with her, because I highly doubt she will be getting her deposit back.

When looking for a house to rent, here are some red flags that you should be wary of:

1. Homes that are listed as "month-to-month"

2. Rental prices that are too good to be true. This 2,700 sq' house, for example was renting at $1,300 per month

3. Landlords who seem extraordinarily desperate


Here is the perfect example:

Three months ago I saw an ad a Craigslist for a big house in Tierra Shores renting at $1400 per month, that said "month to month ok". Suspicious, I pulled up the tax records and found it to be in default. I called the advertiser and asked her why she was renting a house that's in foreclosure. Her reply, "Well I'm renting it month-to-month", to which I replied, "yes, but are you disclosing this fact to the potential tenants and giving them an idea of how long before the bank takes it?" She says, "Well I don't know for SURE when the bank will take it." I said, "Yeah, but you DO know how many months you haven't been paying your payment." Her final stance was "it's month to month so it doesn't matter." And then she hung up on me.

So, with that loveliness, here are a few helpful hints:

1. Use a "leasing" agent. A good leasing agent will charge you $0 for their service. They will receive a commission or a negotiated finder's fee from the owner or management company. Make sure they do a tax research on the property you are interested in applying for.

2. Ask your friendly neighborhood Realtor or a Mortgage Broker, to look in their database to see if there are any foreclosure red flags on the tax records.

Your friend can also see if the owners have paid their taxes on time, and how upside down the owners may be on their loan. These are both indicators of the foreclosure "potential" of the house.

3. Do-it-yourself information on finding the owner of a property is here: http://www.riversidetaxinfo.com/riverside_faq_howdoifind.asp

We all know the screening Landlords do on potential Renters, however I'm thinking the day when Renters start screening potential Landlords is almost here.

Although there are no guarantees that the next house you rent won't go into foreclosure, do your research, so at least it's not next month!

Labels: Real-Estate, Scams

In case you haven't noticed already, I've added a companion blog to Menifee 24/7 called "Menifee Homes", which you can find here...

http://homes.menifee247.com

It's also linked from the navigation bar at the top of the page.

Menifee Homes is meant to provide news and analysis of the real estate market here in Menifee, and which many times reflects the market across California.

Menifee is one of those communities where real estate is always a topic of great interest. First, there's still a lot of people thinking of relocating to Menifee. Even though the market is down right now, I can see a lot of people hitting our website with search terms like "menifee homes for sale" or "new homes in menifee", as well as stuff like "menifee schools", "menifee shopping", or "menifee restaurants". It's evidence there are people out there curious about our town.

But second, even for those of us already living in Menifee, the declining property values and the rising foreclosures is something that's always on our minds.

I asked a few real estate professionals working the Menifee market to contribute to this new blog. Stefan West, Anna Hill, and Holly Kay are all seasoned real estate pros and know the Menifee Valley pretty well.

My goal with this new blog is two fold, one is to keep us all abreast of the real estate market here in Menifee, and two is to attract an audience of readers interested in moving to Menifee. Those prospective homebuyers are coming to Menifee whether we publish this new blog or not, so I'd love to get them into our community reading Menifee Homes.

Labels: Menifee247, Real-Estate

Economists predict that next year will be tough, but say some metro areas will hold up nicely and the future may not be as gloomy as some fear.By BusinessWeek.com
Americans are increasingly nervous about the real estate market in 2007. They have good reason to be. But the news isn't all bad: Interest rates will remain at historically low levels, homebuyers will see more opportunities, and, best of all, for those planning for the long term, 2009 could be primed for a comeback. Read more of this article at http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_busweek.aspx?cp-documentid=1699105

Labels: Real-Estate

Steve Lopez, a columnist for the Los Angeles Times, recently drove out to Menifee to see what all the "hub bub" was about.

That hub bub is of course, the recent news that Riverside County is poised to become California's second most populous county by the middle of this century, and the fact that Menifee is going to sit in the heart of it.

Lopez ended up writing a very interesting article that paints of picture of Menifee from the eyes of an outsider, from someone who's more used to looking at downtown highrises and high-density urban life. He visits new home developments in Menifee, the local school district, and talks to a local Realtor. But don't figure on Lopez seeing Menifee as a sight for sore eyes, he has a much different opinion...

I drive past several of them before entering a "master-planned community" called The Lakes, with nearly 1,000 homes built or under construction. Near the sales office I see workers landscaping the shores of one of three man-made lakes.

"Where's the water come from?" I ask two laborers, wondering if "The Dunes" would have been a smarter concept than "The Lakes," given the state's water shortage.

Read his entire article here...

http://www.latimes.com/....ul18,0,2590766.column

Labels: Population, Real-Estate

That's what an article in The Californian seems to ask, reporting that the average number of days a house sits on the market seems to be peaking...

Homeowners who sold their houses this spring were able to do so in an average of just under two months, according to data from the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors, which represents most local agents. The time-on-market figure, a key statistic, rose from 17 days in the March-to-June period of 2004 to 53 days in the same four months of 2006, but has stabilized, edging up to just 57 days in the last four months.

Read the full article here.
http://www.nctimes.com/..../8_22_547_16_07.txt

The article relies on real estate agents to provide supportive testimony on the notion that the market is picking back up. Certainly, Realtors are going to say positive things about the market, because they need the business. So, is the housing market truly improving for home sellers?

My guess is that what we're seeing are home sellers dropping their listing prices. Whereas before they were asking for way too much, now they are cutting another $20K or $30K off the price in an attempt to expedite their sell. That will shorten the average days on the market, but doesn't mean home sellers are walking away with smiles on their faces.

Labels: Real-Estate

Ted Wegener, a real estate appraiser specializing in Sun City, has published some new information on his website showing the average value of a home in Sun City Core is about $145.00 per square foot as of May 2007.

This figure is down about $20.00 per square foot from a year ago...

HERE IS A TREND ANALYSIS OF PRICE PER SQFT IN THE SUN CITY CORE. PRICE PER SQFT ANALYSIS IS OFTEN USED BY REALTORS IN PRICING PROPERTY. IF THERE WAS ANY DOUBT ABOUT DECLINING VALUES IN SUN CITY THIS SHOULD RESOLVE IT. THE ANALYSIS IS FOR THE PERIOD 5/01/2006 THRU 5/31/2007. AS YOU CAN SEE PRICES ARE DOWN APPROX. $20 PSF IN THE LAST YEAR. THATS $20,000 ON A 1000 SQFT HOUSE. IN THE CORE THERE ARE CURRENTLY (6/14/2007) 123 HOMES FOR SALE. IN MAY THERE WAS 22 SALES WHICH IS .70 SALES PER DAY. IT WOULD TAKE 6 MONTHS TO DISPOSE OF THE STANDING INVENTORY.

You can see a graph of his findings on his website...
http://www.suncityappraiser.com/suncitypricepersqft.htm

Labels: Property-Values, Real-Estate, Sun-City

John Occhi, a Realtor in Hemet, writes a blog on the ActiveRain blog network and this week he published a list of the top 500 zip codes in the United States with the most foreclosure filings.

Menifee (92584) came in ranked at #253, with 217 filings in 2006.

You can see the full chart he prepared at this link...
http://activerain.com/blogsview/132444/Hemet-two-of-138

Being at #253 put's our town right in the middle of the pack. But before you consider that average, keep in mind this is a list of the top 500 worst zip codes. There are approximately 43,000 zip codes total in the USA. That puts Menifee in the top 1% of the country in foreclosures.

Among all the South West Riverside County zip codes, Murrieta's 92563 ranks #22, the worst in SW County, with 465 filings.

That's followed by Murrieta's 92562, ranking at #55, with 358 filings, and Temecula's 92592, at #70.

Perris (92571) at #97, then Menifee (92584) at #253, then Lake Elsinore (92530) at #258, Hemet (92544) at #313, and Hemet (92545) at #396, rounds out the rest of SW County's top 500 representatives.

One observation I have to add is that Murrieta and Temecula's zip codes rank much higher than other SW County cities in foreclosures. Why is that? First of all, people buying homes in SW County come here for the affordable housing, so right off the bat they have tight finances to begin with. But instead of buying a home in Menifee, Hemet, Lake Elsinore, or Perris, they opted to spend a little more in buying a home in Murrieta and Temecula.

I presume they were attracted by the abundance of shopping and dining, as well as the higher quality schools, and probably the slightly shorter commutes into San Diego County. But as the foreclosure data shows, taking on a higher mortgage payment to get a little bit of luxury was a bad decision.

How does this foreclosure data affect our home values?

I'm not a real estate expert, so I can't really speak from knowledge. But I do know that banks tend to sell foreclosed properties at prices much lower than typical home sellers. If you're selling your home at $400,000, and a bank is selling a foreclosed home just like yours, on the same block, for $375,000, it's going to drag the market value down.

Any real estate professionals out there care to comment?

Labels: Foreclosures, Real-Estate

Ted Wegener, a real estate appraiser specializing in Sun City, posted an update on his website about the current market conditions in the Sun City "Core"...

http://www.suncityappraiser.com/ currentmarketconditions.htm

Here's one of his paragraphs...

The spring/summer home buying season has failed to materialize here. The buyers that are out there are the bargain hunters according to the agents. If June continues on the same way, it will be a miserable season. July and August are extremely hot months here (weather wise) and that itself is a damper on the market. A lot of people prefer not to look for houses when the heat peaks up. Agents are worried. 31% of the active listing have had price reductions.

Ted goes on to provide a graph showing May sales data for the past six years, depicting average sales price, contrasted with the average number of days on the market. Needless to say, prices have dropped by about 20% according to his numbers, and the average days on the market have shot up to almost 4 months.

Labels: Real-Estate, Sun-City

The latest word from the California Building Industry Association is that home builders will plan to build about 30-40% fewer homes than initially expected in Riverside County.

Their explanation is that the high price of gasoline is keeping home buyers away from the IE. People don't want to move here and then spend so much money commuting to SD and OC...

Nevin said that the rise in gas prices makes homes in the two counties less attractive to buyers who had previously been willing to trade off a long work commute for less expensive housing. He noted that many homeowners commute 1 1/2 to two hours daily, and in some households, there are two working members who both make long commutes.

Read the full article on The Californian...
http://www.nctimes.com/..../19_50_195_31_07.txt

I tend to disagree with this. I'm no socio-economist, but if people don't move to Riverside county for cheaper homes and cheaper rent, then what are they going to do instead? Stay in San Diego and Orange County and pay double the amount for housing?

The reasons why people are buying fewer homes could be anyone's guess. I don't think it's because of higher gas prices. I moved here from Orange County and continued to commute there. But I had the expectation of finding work here, which I eventually did, starting my own business. I don't think fuel expense is going to stop anyone from realizing cheaper real estate, and a better quality of living. It has to be something else.

Meanwhile, people from all over the United States and Mexico keep pouring into California in search of jobs. These people have to have rooves over their heads. Something's gonna give.

Labels: Real-Estate

The Californian has an article today concerning the value of homes in South West Riverside County falling down compared to a year ago...

Real estate markets have slowed across Southern California for more than a year now, but the slowdown in Riverside and San Bernardino counties was significant, an economist said. That's because a relatively large number of borrowers with low credit scores have been flocking inland in search of less expensive houses, observers said.

Read the full article here...
http://www.nctimes.com/..../4_01_595_15_07.txt

The article reports that the recent sub-prime mortgage fiasco has caused lenders to be more strict against borrowers with risky credit. Whereas in the past, we could sell our homes to people with below-average credit, now we can't, making it tougher to find buyers.

Here in the Menifee Hills development, where I live, I see several homes for sale, including at least one identified as a bank repo. Some of the homes for sale are the same model and from the same builder as mine, and they are listed at prices below than what I was hoping for.

Though, I'm probably one of the lucky ones who bought their home six years ago, when prices were still half of what they are now. If I were to sell, I can afford to drop my price below the others. Those who bought their homes only one or two years ago, don't have that margin.

Have any of you homeowners taken the time to browse the model homes at some of these new developments? My wife and I visited the Pacific Mayfield models off of Evans road about two months ago, and were impressed with the value. For the price they were selling, you got quite a bit of home with a lot of extras thrown in.

I'm not a Realtor, but the way I see it, if you're trying to sell your home, it's these new homes is what you have to compete against.

Labels: Real-Estate

With rates slowly on the rise, and home prices starting to level off, we are left with a conundrum.

My family and I bought a home in Tierra Shores nine months ago. At this time we have a plethora of equity in our home, and are planning to put between $15K and $20K back into it in the form of a back yard, some tile work, etc.

When we purchased the home we were able to negotiate the builder buying down our 5/1 Arm interest rate to 4.5% (no pre-payment penalties). Obviously that means we have another 4 years and three months until our rate adjusts.

Should we refinance our loan to a more conventional loan while the rates are still relatively low and take out the money we need? Or should we roll the dice on future interest rates, enjoy our low payment for the next four years, and take out a home equity line?

What would you do? Why?

Labels: Mortgages, Real-Estate

Being a Realtor in the Menifee/ Sun City Area, I thought this was good information if you are planning on selling your home. As of today 1/20/05 there are 456 houses for sale. This includes the Senior areas. This doesn't include the new home tracts.
46 were built in 2004
23 were built in 2003
31 were built in 2002
27 were built in 2001
8 were built in 2000 This is as far back as I went. I am curious as to what is wrong with these new homes. Or are people just leaving this area? Any comments would be appreciated. For all of you currently selling your house, good luck.

Labels: Real-Estate